The arrival of the envoys to Moscow was marked by an extraordinary combination of high stakes and low expectations, even before the delegation’s plane landed.
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arrived in Moscow on Saturday with a plan for resolving the long-standing conflict in Ukraine, despite Russia’s lack of hope for a breakthrough.
Upon their arrival at Vnukovo Airport, they were met by Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who was accompanying the US envoys as a motorcade headed from the governmental airport into the city.
Even before Witkoff and Kushner had taken off, sources close to the Kremlin were already minimizing expectations for what this visit could accomplish.
Low expectations have been set for this visit, according to sources close to the Kremlin. Visits made in the past by Witkoff and Kushner to Russia have not produced any progress and it does not appear that they will come up with any acceptable proposals this time around, the sources added.
This pessimism is the result of a larger stalemate than a development unique to this visit.
Although the Kremlin's view is rather muted, the White House administration seems to give this trip some real meaning and value and not just another pointless discussion.
As reported by Trump himself to the press on Friday, September 4, Witkoff and Kushner "will be bringing with them a plan to end the war."
Axios reports that the planned meetings of envoys involve separate discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during the weekend.
But perhaps the most historically important part of this journey isn’t even the Moscow part; rather, it’s everything that happens after that.
The two men will meet in Moscow prior to heading to Kyiv on Sunday for meetings with Ukraine—their first ever trip to the Ukrainian capital, despite making numerous visits to Moscow since the return of President Trump.
It’s noteworthy in its own right how there is an asymmetry here: Ukrainian delegations have come to meetings in the US in the last 18 months, while this is the first time that Trump’s top negotiating team will travel to Kyiv.
It is not merely a problem of logistics to get U.S. ambassadors into Kyiv, because Ukrainian airspace has been closed for the entire time of the war.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia in February 2022, Ukraine’s airspace has been closed; therefore, the way of delivering the envoys to Kyiv poses some real issues.
Zelensky dealt with this issue by announcing on Friday his personal guarantee of security of the Russian airspace while the envoys will be in Kyiv.
This came as proof of how sensitive and delicate any diplomatic breakthrough is, as Russia targeted the very infrastructure this trip relies on during its final stages.
Zelensky claimed on Saturday that Russia had conducted "demonstrative strikes" on airports in Kyiv and Boryspil overnight, before his scheduled trip with the US diplomats.
He pointed out the direct relation between the strikes and the diplomatic trip itself, as he stated that "clearly, these strikes by the Russians on the airports are a reaction to the negotiations and preparations related to the use of an airplane to come to Ukraine and land in Kyiv or Boryspil airport."
Before the meeting of the envoys, the President of Ukraine appealed to all involved parties in an effort to ensure at least some sort of break in the fighting.
President Zelensky demanded a stoppage of all air strikes during the envoys’ visit, stating that Ukraine would temporarily stop its airstrikes during the visit and also asked Russia to follow the same course of action. As per the latest reports, no response has been received from Moscow.
Beneath the diplomatic pageantry of the motorcade and the airport meeting is a significant gap that has not changed much in months.
There still exists an enormous gap between the Russian and Ukrainian positions regarding how to settle their four-and-a-half-year conflict—the most violent in Europe since World War II. The Kremlin stated on Friday that Putin's statement, delivered in a speech two years earlier, that Ukraine must give up all four of the regions annexed by Russia and also its desire to be part of NATO "remains unshakeable."
This position has been a consistent issue during the whole process of negotiations, which has made it clear that Moscow is not approaching this meeting in a different way.
Instead of falling into a quiet period amidst ongoing attempts at diplomacy, the conflict has continued to grow on various levels since the most recent round of talks.
Since the February peace talks, both sides have upped their long-distance air strikes deep into enemy territory, and there has been an escalation in the war at sea. There has not been much change on land with the front line being mostly static, though Russia is slowly making gains in taking all of the Donbas region in Ukraine.
That Dmitriev is seen off by the representatives at the airport indicates consistency in the ongoing negotiating process that has been going on for months despite periods where the visits were stopped.
This is because Dmitriev had previously informed Reuters in June that he kept in touch with the US negotiators despite there being periods where they did not come to Russia. He has been present in all their meetings with President Putin as well as negotiations outside the Ukrainian issues alone between the US and Russia.
The arrival of Saturday is indicative of a trend already established by Witkoff and Kushner in previous rounds, such as their lengthy nighttime meeting in January with Putin that resulted in diplomatic rhetoric without much progress.
In the wake of their January trip, Russian diplomatic negotiator Yuri Ushakov said the meeting was "beneficial from every point of view," while at the same time maintaining the stance that Russia's territorial demands must be satisfied prior to any agreement on a peace deal, and that otherwise, until that happens, Russia will "continue to consistently achieve our goals… on the battlefield where the strategic initiative belongs to the Russian Armed Forces."
This January dynamic of diplomatic rhetoric coupled with a non-conceding territorial stance seems to be playing out once more this weekend, according to the same sources.
Although there were low expectations from both parties with entrenched positions, what makes this round of shuttle diplomacy different from all previous rounds is the inclusion of the first-ever visit to Kyiv by the envoys, which will allow them to get information directly from the government of Zelensky rather than just having talks hosted in the United States or visits to Moscow only.
It is the gap between these two parties concerning territorial, NATO, and even a possible ceasefire agreement that is yet to be bridged.
With negotiations to take place over Saturday and Sunday, and then to be immediately followed by an unprecedented visit to Kyiv, the next two days will decide whether the current round of diplomacy will produce anything more than just a collection of pictures and declarations.
Judging from the precedent set by previous trips, including the marathon-long negotiating night of January, which only served to reiterate the key point of controversy, not resolve it, no one should expect any earth-shaking developments.
