Y
et again, the Middle East finds itself facing a potential larger-scale regional war. At the end of July 2026, Iran attacked the American forces stationed in Jordan, after which Saudi Arabia and the United States responded by attacking Iranian-aligned groups within Iraq. Neither event took place in a vacuum.
Rather, they are simply new episodes in an ongoing struggle for the Middle East that has been developing since the start of February. The real question that remains is whether or not this is just a passing phenomenon.
In order to get a perspective on the events of the week, it is worthwhile to revisit the events of February 28, 2026. On that day, the United States and Israel unleashed a joint onslaught of around 900 attacks in 12 hours on Iran's targets, which included missile facilities, air defense systems, military infrastructure, and leadership in the country. The first strike managed to kill Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, and a few other high-ranking officials, causing a huge backlash in the form of missile and drone attacks by Iran.
In order to accomplish their objectives, which included destruction of Iran's missile capability, decimation of their naval fleet, ending any assistance to militias, and making sure that Iran was not able to develop a nuclear weapon, the US called for a conditional ceasefire in April that never lasted.
The goal was to open the Strait of Hormuz and officially end the war by June through a memorandum of understanding. But Iran has kept up with its attempts to control the Strait of Hormuz, telling any vessels using the waterway that they have to use a certain path, which led to Iran attacking several vessels in early July.
This development has brought the already weak ceasefire to the brink of ending and set the scene for this new bout of hostilities. In this context, the attack that Iran launched on Jordan this week should be understood.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps on Wednesday reported that it had attacked US facilities in Jordan, calling this strike a retaliation for what it calls the aggressive actions of the US military.
There are about 4,000 American troops in Jordan, according to a Congressional Research Service estimate in 2026, and these are stationed in different places, including Muwaffaq Salti Air Base and the logistics base called Tower 22, which is located close to the Syrian and Iraqi borders.
US sources say that their defensive systems were able to fend off this surprising attack; however, the fact that Iran has carried out a pre-emptive attack, or even an attack without any specific attack by the US military, indicates something new.
On the same day, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense issued a statement saying that the Saudi Armed Forces, in coordination with US Central Command, had struck back against pro-Iranian groups based in Iraq.
The cause for this action was a series of drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities and American forces stationed in the area, amounting to more than 30 attacks in recent days, according to CENTCOM. CENTCOM stated that the attacks on US personnel were unsuccessful, but the attack on Saudi oil infrastructure was of such severity that required a joint effort. The Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, comprising militias allied to Iran, reported that 20 of their fighters were killed in the attack, while 32 were wounded in seven Iraqi provinces. This is important as it involves Saudi Arabia, traditionally hesitant about getting involved militarily against Iran despite years of conflict, to engage in combat along with the United States.
Human losses in this war have also been high. Based on casualty counts compiled by the Pentagon, 18 Americans have lost their lives, and 640 have been injured since the beginning of the war.
A different attack on a Jordanian airbase at the earlier part of the month resulted in the deaths of three Americans, marking the first US combat fatalities in this war since its early stages.
Diplomatic talks, partly facilitated by Pakistan, have had difficulties achieving any significant ground. In the previous weekend, there had been indications from American officials about the country’s readiness to halt attacks to allow for talks to succeed; however, President Trump said in a statement that the negotiations seemed to have hit a snag. He said if no compromise was found, the US would attack Pickax Mountain, an alleged Iranian nuclear enrichment plant with nuclear material in it.
In terms of this week’s developments, what emerges is a pattern of geographic expansion rather than a new front line being created. The attack by Iran on Jordan represents a geographical expansion to a state which has remained on the sidelines of the ongoing battle even though it was geographically closer to the battle and had a security partnership with Washington.
It is also noteworthy that Saudi Arabia has taken part in the attacks on targets in Iraq, thus expanding the war to include a powerful Gulf nation which has sought to maintain balance in terms of relations with Washington and Tehran. In turn, Iraq continues to be the place of the proxy battle, where the militias suffer the most losses.
Many things now depend on the ability of the Pakistan-brokered talks to survive until the United States delivers on its threats to the Pickax Mountain complex. The readiness of Iran to attack a US ally in Jordan, together with Saudi Arabia’s move to attack militarily, are both signs of a war situation that neither party has managed to contain despite the cease-fire and the memorandum of understanding which has recently become strained. Oil supplies, airspace, and the lives of several hundred thousand foreigners in the Gulf region are all at risk of further escalation. It will be determined by whether or not this week’s clash was just a temporary flare-up or a true beginning of a much larger war by how well diplomacy will manage to come up with a solution until the next attack order is given.
