Acton Edges Ahead in Most Ohio Governor Polls as Ramaswamy Leans on Attack Ads, 13 Days From Election Day

Ohio has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006. A Republican has held the office since 2010. So when Cook Political Report moved this race to a toss-up back in July, people noticed.

Thirteen days before the vote, the toss-up label looks about right, with a slight lean toward the Democrat in most of the data. Acton, 59, is a physician and the state's former health director, best known for fronting Ohio's early response to COVID-19 under Republican Gov. Mike DeWine. Ramaswamy, 40, is a biotech entrepreneur who ran for president in 2024 and holds endorsements from both Donald Trump and, since the spring, DeWine himself. Their running mates are Republican state Senate President Rob McColley and former Ohio Democratic Party chair David Pepper.

Either result would be a first of some kind. Acton would be the first woman elected governor of Ohio. Ramaswamy would be the state's first Indian American governor.

The newest numbers come from Marist, which surveyed about 1,200 likely voters from October 15 to 18 and found Acton ahead 50% to 43%. Among independents, her edge was wider, 53% to 34%. A Bowling Green State University and YouGov poll released last week had her up 50% to 44%.

Not everyone agrees. ActiVote, working from a much smaller sample of 400 likely voters, published a result on October 19 with Ramaswamy leading 51.4% to 48.6%. Its margin of error is 4.9 points, which is bigger than the gap it reports. The firm said his strength came mostly from voters who describe themselves as political centrists.

Averaging the five most recent surveys, 270toWin lists Acton at 48.4% and Ramaswamy at 45.0%. A CNN/SSRS poll earlier in the month had her ahead by eight. Another from co/efficient had him up two.

Voters themselves seem unsure how this ends. In the Marist poll, 49% of likely voters said they expect Ramaswamy to win, while 45% expect Acton to. Prediction markets lean the other way. Kalshi priced Acton at 68% in mid-October, up 14 points over a month.

Favorability is part of the story. The latest BGSU poll put Ramaswamy's net favorability at negative 11, with Acton at negative 1.

The last stretch has been rough.

Ramaswamy's campaign this week began airing an ad featuring a woman identified as Donna Arthur, Acton's estranged mother, who says Acton would make people's lives worse as governor. The clip also went viral online and drew criticism, including from Democrats who expect it to backfire. Republican-aligned groups have separately pushed claims about Acton's personal life that she has called horrible.

Acton answered with her own charge. Her campaign says Ramaswamy's New York attorney registration and his Ohio voter registration list two different Ohio addresses, and argues he either broke bar rules or voting law, depending on which address is his real home. As of Tuesday morning, neither his campaign nor the New York State Bar Association had publicly responded, according to a report from WNG.

Here is the odd part. Ramaswamy's team keeps asking for a debate. Acton's team keeps saying no. Her campaign has argued a debate would amount to platforming a scam artist, a line that tells you how the two sides feel about each other.

So the race is being fought almost entirely on television. Axios Cleveland reports that spending is approaching nine figures, and the Ramaswamy campaign has put out a flood of advertising.

The messages are not subtle. Ramaswamy calls himself the most conservative governor Ohio would ever have and has labeled Acton a socialist. Acton talks about affordability, public schools and health care, and portrays her opponent as an out-of-touch billionaire.

Electricity bills are one factor. Kalshi's analysis tied part of Acton's recent gain to local backlash over rising power costs linked to data centers, though that is one outlet's read and not a measured finding.

The national mood matters too. In Marist's Ohio survey, 40% of likely voters said their vote for Congress is mainly a vote against President Trump. Only 21% called it a vote for him. The same poll has Democrat Sherrod Brown ahead of Republican Jon Husted by four points in the Senate race, and Barack Obama is slated to appear at a joint rally with Acton and Brown.

Even a win for Acton would come with an asterisk. Axios notes she would likely face a Republican-controlled Statehouse.